If strong and persistent misalignments of the exchange rate are caused by non-fundamental influences, such that a return to equilibrium is hampered by a coordination failure among fundamentals-based traders, then central bank intervention may act as a coordinating signal, encouraging stabilizing...

We examine out of sample predictive power of real time monetary models with nonlinear adjustment in forecast errors for the Pound Sterling/US Dollar exchange rates. Real time revisions of U.K. and U.S. monetary aggregates and output are significant. By studying recursive out of sample forecast...

In this paper we use a Dynamic Factor model to retrieve vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. A stochastic simulation experiment is then used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events a®ecting a number of East Asian countries...

This paper addresses three issues on the conduct of monetary policy in open economies on the basis of a two-country model with Calvo-type sticky prices. Is the isomorphism of the optimal policy problems between closed and open economies robust to whether the foreign country is buffeted by...

In the literature, there are not satisfactory methods for measuring and presenting the performance of confidence regions. In this paper, techniques for measuring effectiveness of confidence regions and for the graphical display of simulation evidence concerning the coverage and effectiveness of...

In this paper an AK growth model is fully analyzed under the time to build assumption. The existence and uniqueness of the (real) balanced growth path and the oscillatory convergence of detrended capital while detrended consumption is constant over time is proved. Moreover the role of...

National saving rate in the U.S. has been declining since the 1960s while the share of consumption in output has been increasing. We explore if a standard growth model can explain the secular trends observed in this time period. Our results indicate that the standard neoclassical growth model is...

We propose an agent-based model to investigate the effects of policies against poverty – income support, workfare policies and active labor market programs within different economic and institutional setting

This paper introduces the quest for status into the Ramsey model with endogenous labor supply. We focus our attention on relative wealth preferences. In contrast to relative consumption preferences, they allow for the possibility that agents work too little in the long run, while under both...

Copulas have become recently a field of great importance due to their ability to describe complicated dependence structures. In particular, copulas model separate the marginal properties and the existing dependence of the data, allowing for flexible and realistic modelling far from simplistic...