This paper examines the effect on economic growth and welfare of the access to external financing which results in technological transfers to a developing country from the rest of the world. We consider a two-sector stochastic growth model and compute optimal accumulation mechanisms in the...

If strong and persistent misalignments of the exchange rate are caused by non-fundamental influences, such that a return to equilibrium is hampered by a coordination failure among fundamentals-based traders, then central bank intervention may act as a coordinating signal, encouraging stabilizing...

We examine out of sample predictive power of real time monetary models with nonlinear adjustment in forecast errors for the Pound Sterling/US Dollar exchange rates. Real time revisions of U.K. and U.S. monetary aggregates and output are significant. By studying recursive out of sample forecast...

In this paper we use a Dynamic Factor model to retrieve vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. A stochastic simulation experiment is then used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events a®ecting a number of East Asian countries...

This paper considers a dynamic matching model with imperfectly observable worker effort as in Shapiro and Stiglitz (1994). In our economy the no-shirking condition endogenously imposes real wage rigidity on the matching market. This generates "contractual fragility" and inefficient separations...

In this paper, we apply a GARCH model to examine the cross-autocorrelation pattern between daily returns of portfolios composed of dual-listed stocks in Chinese stock market, before and after China opened its once foreign-exclusive B-share market. A lead-lag relationship between the A-share and...

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is one of the most investigated questions in Finance. Nevertheless, it is still a puzzle, despite the enormous amount of research it has provoked. For instance, it is still discussed that market cannot be outperformed in the long run (Detry and Gregoire,...

In this paper we use a non-tâtonnement dynamic macroeconomic model with overlapping generations of consumers to study the role of expectations and inventories in the business cycle. Prices are fixed at the beginning of each period but adjusted between periods, taking into account possible...

This notes proposes an approximation to the consumption function in the buffer-stock model.

We investigate identifiability issues in DSGE models and their consequences for parameter estimation and model evaluation when the objective function measures the distance between estimated and model impulse responses. We show that observational equivalence, partial and weak identification...