It is widely accepted that the distribution of financial returns has heavy tails. In this context it is important to understand the frequency and importance of extreme events in financial markets. Extreme Value Theory is the appropriate framework for studying the tail behaviour of a...

This research aims to develop a valuation technique for constant maturity swaps (CMS) based on convexity corrections. We explicitly incorporates into our valuation model both 1) complex shift patterns of the yield curve and 2) implied volatility smile and skew effects. The method requires...

Survey data on agent expectations appear to experience inertia, remaining relatively stable for protracted periods punctuated with the occasional structural shift initiated by exogenous changes. The data is also characterised with an underlying level of volatility which varies over time. This...

In this paper we show that a model featuring durables consumption, weak credibility, and sticky prices can explain many of the stylized facts associated with exchange-rate-based stabilization, including the quantitative variation exhibited by key macroeconomic variables. In standard models, the...

We describe the methods we employ for the generation of possible scenarios of the term structure evolution. The problem is originated by the request of the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance of finding an optimal strategy for the issuance of Public Debt securities. The basic idea is to...

This paper is a step towards the econometric foundation of computational intelligence in finance. Financial time series modeling and forecasting are addressed with an artificial neural network, examining issues of its topology dependency. Structural dependency of results is viewed not as a...

In the last 20 years the U.S. economy has experienced a strong reduction in the volatility of GDP growth. By some measures it has declined nearly by half. This paper identifies, documents and models the rapid growth of multinational corporations as a source of gradual decline in output and...

Following the lead of Merton (1974), recent research has focused on the relationship of credit risk to firm value. Although this has usually been done for a single firm, the growth of structured finance, which necessarily involves the correlation between included securities, has spurred interest...

We introduce learning based on genetic algorithms in a principal-agent model of optimal contracting under moral hazard. Applications corresponding to this setting abound in finance (credit under moral hazard), public finance (optimal taxation, information-constrained insurance), development...

This paper explores how the introduction of Rational Inattention (RI) affects optimal consumption and portfolio rules and asset pricing in the consumption-based CAPM framework. I first solve an otherwise standard portfolio choice and asset pricing model with RI explicitly and show that RI can...