Abstract A number of recent papers have hypothesized that the Federal Reserve possesses information about the course of inflation and output that is unknown to the private sector, and that policy actions by the Federal Reserve convey some of this superior information. We conduct two tests of...

Abstract Actual and potential competition is a powerful source of discipline on the pricing behavior of firms. This paper extends the empirical literature on the pro-competitive impact of policy reforms by investigating the effects on price markups of barriers to both domestic and foreign entry...

Abstract This paper employs stochastic simulations of a small structural rational expectations model to investigate the consequences of the zero bound on nominal interest rates. We find that if the economy is subject to stochastic shocks similar in magnitude to those experienced in the United...

Several empirical papers have established the fact of a negative price-output correlation for the United States in the post WWII era. Much of this work appears to interpret the sign of this correlation under the assumption that monetary policy is passive. This paper uses a simple aggregate...

Some argue that central banks can improve monetary policy by including confidential supervisory assessments of banking organizations in their forecasts of inflation and unemployment. In this study we examine the extent to which forecasts of these variables would have been improved with the...

Fair (2002) argues that New Keynesian models are wrong in predicting that an inflation shock has contractionary effects only if it raises the real interest rate, and that a coefficient on inflation higher than one in the Taylor rule is a necessary condition for stability. While Fair uses his...

Many researchers have found that the lagged interest rate enters estimated monetary policy rules with overwhelming significance, suggesting that policy adjusts gradually to changes in economic conditions. However, Rudebusch (2002) argues that the lagged interest rate is not a fundamental...

A closed-form solution for quantity and asset-price movements in a dynamic general equilibrium model with non-state-separable preferences shows that the welfare cost of fluctuations and the equity premium can be large in such a model. But a large welfare loss from cycles does not imply a large...

This paper examines the joint determination of long-run income per worker and capital utilization. Comparatively low (optimal) rates of capital utilization may arise in poor economies in response to weak underlying structural characteristics. The quantitative implications of variable capital...

The paper presents a general theory of the aggregation of prices and quantities that unifies the field and relates topics that in the past have been treated separately and unsatisfactorily, or not at all. The theory does without the common but unrealistic assumptions of homotheticity, or...