Universal coverage, it is argued, implies universally required insurance, to avoid adverse selection into last-resort care implicitly guaranteed. It also entails community rating, such that insurers cannot choose among risks. Individual mandate makes more sense than employer mandate. A system is...

We review different approaches to nonparametric density and regression estimation. Kernel estimators are motivated from local averaging and solving ill-posed problems. Kernel estimators are compared to k-NN estimators, orthogonal series and splines. Pointwise and uniform confidence bands are...

This paper is concerned with tests for serial correlation in time series and in the errors of regression models. In particular, the nonstandard problem of testing for white noise against ARMA(1,1) alternatives is considered. Sup Lagrange multiplier (LM) and exponential average LM tests are...

This paper provides a robust statistical approach to testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in forward exchange market efficiency studies. The methods we use allow us to work explicitly with levels rather than differenced data. They are statistically robust to data distributions with heavy tails,...

Historical studies of the growth in real wages and output depend upon the accurate measure of the price trends of goods and services. Over long periods of time, the consumption bundle has changed profoundly, and most of today's consumption includes items that were not produced, and in some cases...

This paper updates through the 1992 election the equation originally presented in Fair (1978) explaining votes for president. Conditional predictions of the 1996 election are also made.

The subject of this paper is modelling, estimation, inference and prediction for economic time series. Bayesian and classical approaches are considered. The paper has three main parts. The first is concerned with Bayesian model determination, forecast evaluation and the construction of evolving...

The pricing tests for optimality in a convex programming problem are not available when the production possibility set displays economies of scale. The paper argues that indivisibilities in production are one of the major causes of such economies. The constrained optimization problems arising in...

Recent developments in nonstationary time series and cointegration are discussed and three new books in the area are reviewed. Some perspectives concerning the scope of current interest in the field are provided, and some novel themes for future research are outlined.