Fully modified least squares (FM-OLS) regression was originally designed in work by Phillips and Hansen (1990) to provide optimal estimates of cointegrating regressions. The method modifies least squares to account for serial correlation effects and for the endogeneity in the regressors that...

This paper provides a robust statistical approach to nonstationary time series regression and inference. Fully modified extensions of traditional robust statistical procedures are developed which allow for endogeneities in the nonstationary regressors and serial dependence in the shocks that...

In this paper I develop models of the incidence and extent of external financing crises of developing countries, which lead to multiperiod multinomial discrete choice and discrete/continuous econometric specifications with flexible correlation structures in the unobservables. I show that...

We consider the relationship between the length of life of individuals and the assets they own and their influence on trustless trade. In particular in some structures a role for government or an outside bank may be called for to support an equilibrium. An example of an OLG model with production...

An extensive literature in econometrics and in numerical analysis has considered the computationally difficult problem of evaluating the multiple integral representing the probability of a multivariate normal random vector constrained to lie in a rectangular region. A leading case of such an...

The set of technological opportunities in a given industry is one of the fundamental determinants of technical advance in that line of business. We examine the concept of technological opportunity and discuss three categories of sources of those opportunities: advances in scientific...

This paper establishes the asymptotic admissibility of the likelihood ratio (LR) test for a general class of testing problems in which a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative hypothesis. The paper also establishes the finite sample admissibility of the LR test for testing...

This paper provides an introduction to the use of empirical process methods in econometrics. These methods can be used to establish the large sample properties of econometric estimators and test statistics. In the first part of the paper, key terminology and results are introduced and discussed...

This paper implements a new statistical approach to robust regression with nonstationary time series. The methods are presently under theoretical development in other work, and are briefly exposited here. They allow us to perform regressions in levels with nonstationary time series data, they...

A sketch of a game theoretic approach to the Theory of Money and Financial Institutions is presented in a nontechnical, nonmathematical manner. The detailed argument and specifics are presented in previous articles and in a forthcoming book.