This paper considers a dual approach to the problem of maximizing lifetime utility subject to liquidity constraints in a discrete time setting. These constraints prohibit the decision maker from borrowing against future endowment income. The dual approach allows us to exploit directly the...

This paper derives asymptotically optimal tests for testing problems in which a nuisance parameter exists under the alternative hypothesis but not under the null. The results of the paper are of interest, because the testing problem considered in non-standard and the classical asymptotic...

The Kalman filter is sued to derive updating equations for the Bayesian data density in discrete time linear regression models with stochastic regressors. The implied "Bayes model" has time varying parameters and conditionally heterogeneous error variances. A sigma-finite "Bayes model" measure...

Because of the potential for global warming, there are widespread concerns about the impact of changing climate upon the productivity of land in farming and other sectors. This paper develops a new approach for measuring the economic impact of environmental factors such as climate on production...

This paper introduces approximately median-unbiased estimators for univariate AR(p) models with time trends. Confidence intervals also are considered. The methods are applied to the Nelson-Plosser macroeconomic data series, the extended Nelson-Plosser macroeconomic data series, and some annual...

This study is designed to present the methodological and technical assumptions and the results behind the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (the DICE model). It is a model that attempts to use the tools of modern economics to determine an efficient strategy for coping with the...

This paper provides an empirical implementation of some recent work by the author and Werner Ploberger on the development of "Bayes models" for time series. The methods offer a new data-based approach to model selection, to hypothesis testing and to forecast evaluation in the analysis of time...

The Cowles Commission approach is reviewed and compared to the approaches of real business cycle (RBC) theorists and new Keynesian economists. It is argued that RBC models are not tested in a serious enough way and that the new Keynesian literature is not empirical enough for testing even to be...

This paper determines a class of finite sample optimal tests for the existence of a changepoint at an unknown time in a normal linear multiple regression model with known variance. Optimal tests for multiple changepoints are also derived. Power comparisons of several tests are provided based on...

This paper derives some exact finite sample distributions and characterizes the tail behavior of maximum likelihood estimators of the cointegrating coefficients in error correction models. It is shown that the reduced rank regression estimator has a distribution with Cauchy-like tails and no...