This paper establishes a correspondence in large samples between classical hypothesis tests and Bayesian posterior odds tests for models without trends. More specifically, tests of point null hypotheses and one- or two-sided alternatives are considered (where nuisance parameters may be present...

The possibility of greenhouse warming has received growing attention in recent years. Many scientific bodies are calling for severe curbs on the emissions of greenhouse gases. To date, the calls to arms and treaty negotiations have progressed more or less independently of economic studies of the...

A stochastic-simulation method is proposed in this paper for obtaining median unbiased estimates of lagged dependent variable coefficients in macroeconomic models. Estimated biases for 13 equations of a macroeconomic model are computed. These biases are on average somewhat smaller in absolute...

This paper is designed to combine the game theoretic investigation of the static or equilibrium properties of large strategic market games together with the investigation of some very simple dynamics, which nevertheless are sufficient to show differences between two related games, one in which...

Tjalling C. Koopmans made fundamental contributions to economics. This paper, prepared for a National Academy of Sciences volume of memoirs, provides a biographical sketch of this extraordinary individual.

Several models of exchange are presented here to illustrate various conceptual problems in the microeconomic model of the velocity of money and the meaning of and cost of liquidity in an exchange economy without exogenous uncertainty.

Two proposals are made that may facilitate the creation of derivative market instruments, such as futures contracts, cash-settled based on economic indices. The first proposal concerns index number construction: indices based on infrequent measurements of nonstandardized items may control for...

This paper studies stationary noncooperative equilibria in an economy with fiat money, one nondurable commodity, countably many time periods, no credit or futures market, and a measure space of agents -- who may differ in their preferences and in the distributions of their (random) endowments....

This paper builds on some recent work by the author and Werner Ploberger (1991, 1994) on the development of "Bayes models" for time series and on the authors' model selection criterion "PIC." The PIC criterion is used in this paper to determine the lag order, the trend degree, and the presence...

A model for U.S. macroeconomic time series that has been used for forecasting for several years is described in some detail. The model is a multivariate Bayesian autoregression, with allowance for conditional heteroskedasticity, stochastic time-variation in parameters, and non-normality of...