Short-term interest rates in the United States have been "too high" since 1979-10 in the sense that both unconditional and conditional forecasts, based on an estimated vector autoregression model summarizing the prior experience, underpredict short-term interest rates during this period....

In a model where a variable Y is proportional to the present value, with constant discount rate, of expected future values of a variable y, the "spread" S - Y - qy will be stationary for some q whether or not y must be differenced to induce stationarity. Thus, Y and y are cointegrated. The model...

One of the current questions in the literature on the demand for money is whether the adjustment of actual to desired money holdings is in nominal or real terms. This paper describes a simple procedure that can be used to test the nominal against the real hypothesis. The test is carried out for...

The concept of a near-integrated vector random process is introduced. Such processes help us to work towards a general asymptotic theory of regression for multiple time series in which some series may be integrated processes of the ARIMA type, others may be stable ARMA processes with near unit...

When changing jobs is costly, efficient employment arrangements are characterized by complex contracts, rather than simply wages. Under these contracts, workers are not generally fully compensated for the effects of post-employment events or decisions. As a consequence, if there is a central...

Existence of equilibrium is proved for an exchange strategic market game with complete markets. An example of equilibrium with inconsistent prices is given.

Suppose that we reformulate the exchange economy as a strategic market game. As all purchases are paid for in cash it is possible to attach precise meaning to what is meant by enough money. As the game is a single simultaneous bid and offered at m trading posts and m prices are all...

A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector...

The long-run dynamics of public deficits and debt are modeled, assuming that public debt competes with capital for limited private savings. The interest costs of the debt are endogenously determined in this market, and the deficit in other budget transactions is a constant fraction of Gross...

It is well known that modeling exchange rates is difficult. Meese and Rogoff's (1983) results show that a random walk model performs as well as or better than a variety of structural models, where the forecasts from the structural models are based on the actual values of the future explanatory...