A decision maker is asked to express her beliefs by assigning probabilities to certain possible states. We focus on the relationship between her database and her beliefs. We show that, if beliefs given a union of two databases are a convex combination of beliefs given each of the databases, the...

An agent is asked to assess a real-valued variable y based on certain characteristics x=(x^{1},...,x^{m}), and on a database consisting of n observations of (x^{1},...,x^{m},y). A possible approach to combine past observations of x and y with the current values of x to generate an assessment of...

The veil of ignorance has been used often as a tool for recommending what justice requires with respect to the distribution of wealth. We complete Harsanyi’s model of the veil of ignorance by appending information permitting interpersonal comparability of welfare. We show that the...

Given a_{1}; a_{2},...a_{n} in Z^{d}, we examine the set, G, of all nonnegative integer combinations of these ai. In particular, we examine the generating function f(z) = Sum_{b in G}z^{b}. We prove that one can write this generating function as a rational function using the neighborhood complex...

This paper derives second-order expansions for the distributions of the Whittle and profile plug-in maximum likelihood estimators of the fractional difference parameter in the ARFIMA(0,d,0) with unknown mean and variance. Both estimators are shown to be second-order pivotal. This extends earlier...

The two main political parties in the United States put forth policies on redistribution and on issues pertaining directly to race. We argue that redistributive politics in America can be fully understood only by taking account of the interconnection between these issues, and the effects of...

Anti-immigrant feeling (xenophobia) among voters has been proposed as a key factor explaining why, in the 2002 French national election, Jean Le Pen’s National Front Party won second place. Here, we study the effect of anti-immigrant sentiments among voters on the equilibrium position of...

Our subject is the notion of automated discovery in econometrics. Advances in computer power, electronic communication, and data collection processes have all changed the way econometrics is conducted. These advances have helped to elevate the status of empirical research within the economics...

Weak convergence of partial sums and multilinear forms in independent random variables and linear processes to stochastic integrals now plays a major role in nonstationary time series and has been central to the development of unit root econometrics. The present paper develops a new and...

We develop a dynamic model of experience goods pricing with independent private valuations. We show that the optimal paths of sales and prices can be described in terms of a simple dichotomy. In a mass market, prices are declining over time. In a niche market, the optimal prices are initially...