Are beliefs as indeterminate as suggested by models with multiple equilibria? Multiplicity of equilibria arise largely as the unintended consequence of two modelling assumptions -- the fundamentals are assumed to be common knowledge, and economic agents know others' actions in equilibrium. Both...

The present study is a contribution to the theory of the measurement of productivity growth. First, it examines the welfare-theoretic basis for measuring productivity growth and shows that the ideal welfare-theoretic measure is a chain index of productivity growth rates of different sectors...

Recent time series methods are applied to the problem of forecasting New Zealand's real GDP. Model selection is conducted within autoregressive (AR) and vector autoregressive (VAR) classes, allowing for evolution in the form of the models over time. The selections are performed using the Schwarz...

This article describes a versatile family of functions increasingly roughened by successive interpolations. They provide models of the variation of financial prices. More importantly, they are helpful "cartoons" of Brownian motions in multifractal time, BMMT, which are better models described in...

We consider a general mechanism design setting where each agent can acquire (covert) information before participating in the mechanism. The central question is whether a mechanism exists which provides the efficient incentives for information acquisition ex-ante and implements the efficient...

This paper considers the problem of choosing the number bootstrap repetitions B to use with the BC_{a} bootstrap confidence intervals introduced by Efron (1987). Because the simulated random variables are ancillary, we seek a choice of B that yields a confidence interval that is close to the...

The organization of supply relations varies across industries. This paper builds a theoretical framework to compare three alternative supply structures: vertical integration, networks, and markets. The analysis considers the relationship between uncertainty in demand for specific inputs,...

This paper develops consistent model and moment selection criteria for GMM estimation. The criteria select the correct model specification and all correct moment conditions asymptotically. The selection criteria resemble the widely used likelihood-based selection criteria BIC, HQIC, and AIC....

Savage motivated his Sure Thing Principle by arguing that, whenever an act would be preferred if an event obtains and preferred if that event did not obtain, then it should be preferred overall. The idea that it should be possible to decompose and recompose decision problems in this way has...

This paper seeks to characterize empirically achievable limits for time series econometric modeling. The approach involves the concept of minimal information loss in time series regression and the paper shows how to derive bounds that delimit the proximity of empirical measures to the true...