This paper analyzes the behavior of posterior distributions under the Jeffreys prior in a simultaneous equations model. The case under study is that of a general limited information setup with n + 1 endogenous variables. The Jeffreys prior is shown to give rise to a marginal posterior density...

An indexed unit of account is a unit of measurement defined using an index such as a consumer price index so that prices, wages or deferred payments defined in terms of these units will automatically adjust to changing economic conditions. Evidence on money illusion and sticky prices, and...

Recent work by the author (1998) has shown that stochastic trends can be validly represented in empirical regressions in terms of deterministic functions of time. These representations offer an alternative mechanism for modelling stochastic trends. It is shown here that the alternate...

In a typical empirical modeling context, the data generating process (DGP) of a time series is assumed to be known up to a finite-dimensional parameter. In such cases, Rissanen's (1986) theorem provides a lower bound for the empirically achievable distance between all possible data-based models...

An asymptotic theory for stochastic processes generated from nonlinear transformations of nonstationary integrated time series is developed. Various nonlinear functions of integrated series such as ARIMA time series are studied, and the asymptotic distributions of sample moments of such...

Social security system old age insurance systems are devices for the sharing of income risks of elderly people with others. Risks can be shared intergenerationally (with the young of the same country), intragenerationally (with other elderly of the same country) or internationally (with...

An asymptotic theory is developed for nonlinear regression with integrated processes. The models allow for nonlinear effects from unit root time series and therefore deal with the case of parametric nonlinear cointegration. The theory covers integrable, asymptotically homogeneous and explosive...

Two approaches have been proposed in the literature to refine the rationalizability solution concept: either assuming that players make small errors when playing their strategies, or assuming that there is a small amount of payoff uncertainty. We show that both approaches lead to the same...

We introduce a new method for the estimation of discount functions, yield curves and forward curves for coupon bonds. Our approach is nonparametric and does not assume a particular functional form for the discount function although we do show how to impose various important restrictions in the...

The immense literature and diversity of unit root tests can at times be confusing even to the specialist and presents a truly daunting prospect to the uninitiated. In consequence, much empirical work still makes use of the simplest testing procedures because it is unclear from the literature and...