Fisher's equation for the determination of the real rate of interest is studied from a fresh econometric perspective. Some new methods of data description for nonstationary time series are introduced. The methods provide a nonparametric mechanism for modelling the spatial densities of a time...

This paper studies the extent to which qualitative features of Walrasian equilibria are refutable given a finite data set. In particular, we consider the hypothesis that the observed data are Walrasian equilibria in which each price vector is locally stable under tatonnement. Our main result...

Traditional finance theory based on the assumptions of symmetric information and perfect and competitive markets has provided many important insights. These include the Modigliani and Miller Theorems, the CAPM, the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and continuous time finance. However, many empirical...

We construct stationary Markov equilibria for an economy with fiat money, one non-durable commodity, countably-many time periods, and a continuum of agents. The total production of commodity remains constant, but individual agents' endowments fluctuate in a random fashion, from period to period....

Many advocates of social security privatization argue that rates of return under a defined contribution individual account system would be much higher for all than they are under the current social security system. This claim is false. The mistake comes from ignoring accrued benefits already...

Fixed exchange rate, pegs to hard currencies that can be adjusted, are fragile, the more so the more mobile are capital funds across currencies and national markets. Once market participants doubt, for whatever reason, the ability of a developing or emerging economy's central bank to meet its...

Asymptotic expansions are developed for Wald test statistics in cointegrating regression models. These expansions provide an opportunity to reduce size distortion in testing by suitable bandwidth selection, and automated rules for doing so are calculated. Band spectral regression methods and...

This paper describes how three money's worth measures -- the benefit-to-tax ratio, the internal rate of return, and the net present value -- are calculated and used in analyses of social security reforms, including systems with privately managed individual accounts invested in equities....

The paper reviews the major developments of the last three decades: the rise and fall of monetarism as theory and as targeting of intermediate monetary aggregates; targeting of nominal GDP in order to escape volatility of velocity of money; the abandonment of intermediate targets as superfluous;...

Recent literature in empirical finance is surveyed in its relation to underlying behavioral principles, principles which come primarily from psychology, sociology and anthropology. The behavioral principles discussed are: prospect theory, regret and cognitive dissonance, anchoring, mental...