Since the 1980s, economists have argued that the slope of the yield curve-the spread between long- and short-term interest rates-is a good predictor of future economic activity. While much of the existing research has documented how consistently movements in the curve have signaled past...

The failure of the dollar's depreciation to narrow the U.S. trade deficit has driven recent research showing that the transmission of exchange rate changes to import prices has declined sharply in industrial countries. Estimates presented in this study, however, suggest that "pass-through" to...

While the U.S. manufacturing sector has contracted sharply since the early 1980s, employment in high-skill manufacturing occupations has risen by an impressive 37 percent. An investigation of the growth in high-skill manufacturing jobs reveals that virtually all of the nation's industries have...

Business surveys often give early signals of the direction and magnitude of economic activity. One release, the relatively new Empire State Manufacturing Survey, is demonstrating an ability to provide information ahead of U.S. production and employment trends. In fact, the predictive power of...

Transaction-level data for the federal funds market provide a rare look at the intraday behavior of trade volume and prices. An analysis of the data reveals that trade volume exhibits large swings over the course of the day while prices remain fairly stable, with rate volatility rising sharply...

The behavior of the fed funds rate-a key monetary policy target and a benchmark for short-term interest rates-is closely watched by many market participants. After a decade marked by periodic bouts of high volatility in the funds rate, volatility has declined sharply since 2001. An analysis of...

The Federal Reserve collects data on the financing activities of the primary government securities dealers. Some market analysts argue that the data show a considerable rise in dealer leverage in recent years. However, a close reading of the data suggests that dealer borrowing involving...

Has the migration of jobs to the suburbs changed the commuting patterns in the New York City metro area? An analysis of current commuting trends suggests that Manhattan remains the region's undisputed employment center and that workers are actually traveling farther to their jobs. Two factors...

Recent concerns about the transfer of U.S. services jobs to overseas workers have deepened long-standing fears about the effects of trade on the domestic labor market. But a balanced view of the impact of trade requires that we consider jobs created through the production of U.S. exports as well...

The Federal Reserve now makes available current and historical data on trades in U.S. Treasury and other securities that fail to settle as scheduled. An analysis of the data reveals substantial variation in the frequency of fails over the 1990-2004 period. It also suggests that surges in fails...