The authors evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of six competing models at horizons of up to three quarters ahead in a pseudo-real time setup. All the models use information in monthly indicators released ahead of quarterly GDP. The authors estimate two models – averaged vector...

To provide a rigorous analysis of monetary policy in the face of financial instability, the authors extend the standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to include a financial system. Their simulations suggest that if financial stability affects output and inflation with a lag, and...