The basic model of financial economics is the Samuelson model of geometric Brownian motion because of the celebrated Black-Scholes formula for pricing the call option. The asset volatility is a linear function of the asset value and the model guarantees positive asset prices. We show that the...

Divide the decisionmaker's future into: (i) a pre-outcome period (lasting from the decision until the outcome of that decision is known), and (ii) a sequel post-outcome period (beginning when the outcome becomes known). Anticipated emotions in both periods may influence the decision, in...

This paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982). Using insights on the behavior of multiplicative stochastic processes, we demonstrate that the tails of the unconditional distribution emerging from such bubble processes...

his article presents a new type of business-cycle index that allowsM for cycle-to-cycle comparisons of the depth of recessions within a country,M cross-country comparisons of business-cycle correlation andM simple aggregation to arrive at a measure of a European business cycle.M The paper...

This paper discusses the pitfalls in the pricing of barrier options a pproximations of the underlying continuous processes via discrete lattice models. These problems are studied first in a Black-Scholes model. Improvements result from a trinomial model and a further modified model where price...

The effect of model and parameter misspecification on the effectiveness of Gaussian hedging strategies for derivative financial instruments is analyzed, showing that Gaussian hedges in the `natural'' hedging instruments are particularly robust. This is true for all models that imply...

We develop a new approach to pricing and hedging contingent claims in incomplete markets. Mimicking as closely as possible in an incomplete markets framework the no--arbitrage arguments that have been developed in complete markets leads us to defining the concept of pseudo--arbitrage. Building...

|When international relations theorists use the concept of risk aversion, they usually cite the economics conception involving concave utility functions. However, concavity is meaningful only when the goal is measurable on an interval scale. International decisions are usually not of this type,...

Individuals repeatedly face a multi-decision task with unknown payoff distributions. They have minimal memory and update their strategy by observing previous play (and not strategy) of someone else. We select behavior rules that increase average payoffs as often as possible in a large population...

The aim of the paper is to develop pricing formulas for European type Asian options written on the exchange rate in a two currency economy. The exchange rate as well as the foreign and domestic zero coupon bond prices are assumed to follow geometric Brownian motions. As a special case of a...