Empirical evaluation of macroeconomic uncertainties and their use for probabilistic forecasting are investigated. A new weighted skew normal distribution which parameters are interpretable in relation to monetary policy outcomes and actions is proposed. This distribution is fitted to recursively...

This essay was written to accompany a lecture to beginning students of the course of Economic Analytics, which is taught in the Institute of Econometrics of the University of Lodz in Poland. It provides, within a few pages, a broad historical account the development of econometrics. It begins by...

The algebra of the Kronecker products of matrices is recapitulated using a notation that reveals the tensor structures of the matrices. It is claimed that many of the difficulties that are encountered in working with the algebra can be alleviated by paying close attention to the indices that are...

Alternative methods of trend extraction and of seasonal adjustment are described that operate in the time domain and in the frequency domain. The time-domain methods that are implemented in the TRAMO–SEATS and the STAMP programs are described and compared. An abbreviated time-domain method of...

The claim that linear filters are liable to induce spurious fluctuations has been repeated many times of late. However, there are good reasons for asserting that this cannot be the case for the filters that, nowadays, are commonly employed by econometricians. If these filters cannot have the...

This paper introduces two new concepts in evolutionary game theory: Nash equilibrium with Group Selection (NEGS) and Evolutionarily Stable Strategy with Group Selection (ESSGS). These concepts generalize Maynard Smith and Price (1973) to settings with arbitrary matching rules, inparticular they...

The need to give incentives is usually absent in the literature on minimum wages. However, especially in the service sector it is important how well a job is done, and employees must be incentivized to perform accordingly. Furthermore, many aspects regarding service quality cannot be verified,...

This paper applies the theory of relational contracts to a model in which a couple decides whether to marry or cohabit, how many children to have and subsequently whether to stay together or separate. We make precise the idea that cooperation in a household can be supported by self interest....

Penalized splines are widespread tools for the estimation of trend and cycle, since they allow a data driven estimation of the penalization parameter by the incorporation into a linear mixed model. Based on the equivalence of penalized splines and the Hodrick-Prescott filter, this paper connects...

Mandatory data disclosure is an essential feature for credible empirical work but comes at a cost: First, authors might invest less in data generation if they are not the full residual claimants of their data after their first publication. Second, authors might "strategically delay" the time of...