The mainstream model of option pricing is based on an exogenously given process of price movements. The implication of this assumption is that price movements are not affected by actions of market participants. However, if we assume that there are indeed impacts on the price movements it no...

We present a model of risk averse exporting firm subject to liquidity constraints. The firm enters an unbiased futuresmarket to hedge exchange rate risk and may not be able to satisfy high margin calls. Then the firm is forced toprematurely liquidate the futures position. We show that...

Existing literature repeatedly documented a strong correlation between trade and growth. It has also shown a causal effect of imports (though not necessarily exports) on growth in simultaneous equation models but to a lesser extent in Granger-causality tests. Export and import taxes have...

Several empirical papers have shown that international trade has a positive causal effect on a country's GDP or growth rate. A common conclusion from these results is that a free trade policy will increase a country's GDP. This comment does not dispute the empirical findings per se but questions...

In einem dreistufigen Modell werden im folgenden Determinanten der Straßenverkehrsnachfrage, der Unfallhäufigkeit und der Unfallschwere mit Hilfe eines ökonometrischen Modells untersucht. Dabei werden zwei Ziele verfolgt. Erstens könne mit Hilfe der ökonometrischen Schätzmodelle sowohl...

This note focuses on the role of the planning horizon in monetary policy games. We analyze the case of an uncertain horizon of the monetary policy game that has not been considered, yet. In addition to that we will - different from the basic Barro-Gordon-model - assume a quadratic loss function...

Traditionell werden Prognosen über den Ausgang von politischen Wahlen aus Befragungsdaten gewonnen. Seit etwas mehr als einem Jahrzehnt beschäftigen sich auch Ökonomen vermehrt mit der Frage, wie eine gute Wahlprognose gewonnen werden kann. Als Instrument hierzu wurde die politische...

The paper describes tests of hypotheses from economic history concerning the significance of financial development as a determinant of economic growth. It goes beyond the existing studies in drawing on a large panel data set covering 93 countries from 1970-90 and includes a new proxy for the...