Two phenomena are increasingly reshaping the world economy. One is the growing and well-documented importance of climate transition policies that differ across countries. The other is the stark rise of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) concerns. While differences in climate transition policies are...

The green transition of the EU economy will require substantial investment to 2030 and beyond. Estimates of green investment needs vary between institutions and are surrounded by high uncertainty, but they all point to a requirement for faster and more ambitious action. Green investment will...

Supervisory data are typically not conceived for statistical purposes or considered "official statistics", but they are disclosed to the public, either directly by the supervised institutions or indirectly by the competent authorities. This disclosure is required under Pillar 3 of the Basel...

This paper looks back on the 25-year history of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Since its launch in the first quarter of 1999, it has served as an important input for policymaking and analysis, especially over the past five years, where the euro area has, following a period of...

Since the March 2023 banking turmoil, a policy debate has emerged concerning the unprecedented scale and speed of the observed deposit outflows. Have recent stress episodes and developments in technology structurally changed depositors' behaviour? Are the Basel III liquidity coverage ratio (LCR)...

As digital payments become increasingly popular, many central banks are looking into the issuance of retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a new central bank monetary liability in addition to banknotes and commercial bank reserves. CBDC will have broadly the same balance sheet and...

This paper takes stock of the implementation of the NextGenerationEU (NGEU) programme in the euro area four years after its inception, focusing on its principal instrument, the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). The paper provides an updated quantitative assessment of its past and future...

In light of recent global economic and geopolitical shocks threatening trade openness, this report aims to shed light on geoeconomic fragmentation and develops a rich set of new tools to assess its economic effects and implications for central banks. The report shows that, although global trade...

In the low inflation and low interest rate environment that prevailed over the period 2013-2020, many argued that besides expansionary monetary policy, expansionary fiscal policy could also support central banks' efforts to bring inflation closer to target. During the pandemic, proper alignment...

This paper introduces innovative, newly developed forward-looking indicators of negotiated wage growth in the euro area using data on collective bargaining agreements from seven countries: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria and Greece. The paper demonstrates how...