This paper provides closed-form formulae for computing the asymptotic standard errors of the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions for stable VAR models by means of the d-method. These standard errors can be used to construct asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated...

This paper provides a broad empirical examination of the major currencies' roles in international capital markets, with a special emphasis on the first year of the euro. A contribution is made as to how to measure these roles, both from the viewpoint of international financing as well as from...

Using business survey data on German manufacturing firms, this paper provides tests for hypotheses formulated in capital market imperfection theories that predict distributional effects in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Effects of monetary policy shocks on the business conditions...

This paper analyses in a unified framework the twin issues of the appropriate horizon for achieving price stability in the face of unexpected disturbances and the choice of a price level versus an inflation objective. Using a small estimated forward-looking model of the euro area economy, the...

In most of the existing academic literature the notion of transparency in monetary policy is defined in too simple terms to be of practical relevance. This paper suggests a conceptual framework, which distinguishes different - and potentially conflicting - aspects of transparency. When there are...

We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyze the CLI's accuracy at anticipating US output growth. We compare the predictive performance of linear, VAR extensions of smooth transition...

In this paper we estimate a small model of the euro area to be used as a laboratory for evaluating the performance of alternative monetary policy strategies. We focus on the relationship between output and inflation and investigate the fit of the nominal wage contracting model due to Taylor...

This paper analyzes the link between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), corporate taxation, and corporate tax revenues. We find strong evidence that FDI in (out) flows are affected by tax regimes in the host (home) countries and FDI flows in turn affect the corporate tax base. Simulations of EU...

The information content of broad money M3 for future GDP inflation in the euro area is investigated from a number of perspectives. Firstly, tests that money does not Granger-cause prices are conducted within a cointegrated VAR system comprising real M3 holdings, real GDP, inflation and short-...

This paper develops a broad concept of systemic risk, the basic economic concept for the understanding of financial crises. It is claimed that any such concept must integrate systemic events in banking and financial markets as well as in the related payment and settlement systems. At the heart...