The main objective of our study is to model and forecast volatility as measured by the VIX index, with the aim of producing information to banks and also to macroeconomists. We begin with Arma/Arima models, augmented with Garch errors and exogenous regressors : some macroeconomic leading...

The government of Quebec has launched a major public infrastructure spending program funded essentially by debt. This choice can have long term consequences on growth if the eviction effect is strong. In this paper, we use a recursive dynamic model of the Quebec economy to analyse alternative...

The current state budget crisis in the EU and the numerous futile efforts to solve the problem has brought back the fraction of people that argument in favour of an exit strategy of Germany from the ECU or even the break-up of the ECU in total. The path to the ECU was long and mainly politically...

This paper will review the specification of international trade in CGE models, focusing on how the modelers have drawn on trade theory to build empirical models to analyze issues of: trade liberalization, regional integration, trade-wage links, structural adjustment to macro shocks, choice of...

As the globalization is increasing and economies are becoming more and more interdependent, some questions have gained more importance, for example, has globalization changed the inflation determinants? The control of monetary authority over domestic inflation & interest rate has decreased or...

Universal primary education ranges prominently among the Millennium Development Goals and is thus regarded as an important component of human development. In addition, education is widely believed to allow a country to access a higher steady state growth path by accumulating human capital....

With this paper we present a preliminary version of the first and the third quadrants of the input-output matrix for Alentejo, a Portuguese region through the regionalization of the input-output national table, for the year 2008. As it is well known the input-output (IO) model is particularly...

In line with the EU strategy on smart and sustainable growth, there has been an increasing attention directed to Research and development activities in the Czech Republic. Gross expenditures on R&D have doubled between 2000 and 2008 and the private R&D sector remains the biggest contributor to...

The research and bank model developed in this paper for the case of Indonesia is motivated by the following: 1. A recent change in banking regulations in Indonesia, like the statutory reserve requirement and full implementation of Basel II in 2011, coupled with a lack of literature to document...

The past two decades have witnessed many episodes of economic reform across the developing world. Although initiated with popular enthusiasm, sustaining and completing these reform packages has turned out to be much more difficult, with policymakers having to `walk the line' between success and...