In this paper we investigate the forecasting performance of the non-linear time series SETAR model by using Canadian GDP data from 1965 to 2000. Besides the with-in-sample fit, the forecasting performance of a standard linear ARIMA model for the same sample has also been generated for...

In this paper we suggest a convenient way to obtain parameter estimates of a discrete state hidden Markov volatility process within a framework consistent with observed option prices and stochastic volatility. Relative to similar proposals, we simplify the model estimation by resorting to some...

The main problem with the literature on the economics of real exchange rates is not the absence of persuading theoretical explanations, but their great fragmentation. Through a synthetic, but comprehensive overview of theoretical and empirical researches realized so far, this paper tries to...

Long memory in conditional variance is one of the empirical features of most financial time series. One class of models that was suggested to capture this behavior refers to the so-called Fractionally Integrated GARCH processes (Baillie, Bollerslev and Mikkelsen 1996) in which the ideas of...

This paper examines regional inflation divergence within the European EMU aiming at characterizing the properties of inflation differentials. The empirical evidence suggests that a process of price level convergence in the EMU is well on its way.

As financial markets move toward increased globalization, it becomes worth considering whether inherent differences in financial markets across different countries will diminish. For two countries more similar than different in terms of geography, location, government and culture, Canada and the...

Volatility forecasting is one of the main issues in the financial econometrics literature. Volatility measures may be derived from statistical models for conditional variance, or from option prices. In recent times, indices have been suggested which summarize the implied volatility of widely...

Various authors have proposed using the jackknife technique to approximate a standard error for the Gini coefficient. It has also been shown that the Gini measure can be obtained simply from an artificial OLS regression based on the data and their ranks. Accordingly, we show that obtaining an...

Using OECD data (1965-1994) for 22 selected countries, we test for tax burden and per capita GDP convergence based on a time series approach. We further examine the issue of a possible relationship existing between per capita GDP and tax burden convergence. Generally, the evidence from this...

In this paper, we estimate Okun's coefficients for ten Canadian provinces using real GDP and unemployment rate data across the provinces. We obtain an average estimated Okun's coefficient of -1.58 under the Hodrick-Prescott detrending method and -1.32 under the quadratic detrending method. There...