This paper explores the normative aspects of the institution design for macroeconomic policymaking when a society legislates specific objectives and sequencing of decisions for the involved authorities. We develop a general theoretical framework that adds fiscal policy to the...

We consider the impact of breaking news on market prices by looking at activity on the micro-blogging platform Twitter surrounding the #bigotgate scandal during the 2010 UK General Election, and subsequent movements of betting prices on a prominent betting exchange, Betfair. We find that the...

We examine the effects of different kinds of domestic abuse (physical violence, emotional abuse, sexual abuse and physical violence while the victim is pregnant) on health outcomes of children born to victims. We use data on approximately 0.6 million children born between 1975 and 2013 across...

Corruption is hidden action which distorts allocations of resources away from competitive outcomes. Hence the detection of such actions is both dicult yet important. In many economic contexts, agent actions are unobservable by principals and hence detection is dicult; sport offers a...

The aim of this paper is to analyse the extent to which internal knowledge flows may have an impact on firms’ innovative performance. As most of innovation literature has focused its attention on external knowledge transfers, internal knowledge flows have faded into the background. However,...

In this paper we combine an analysis of all labour market stocks and flows to assess gender gaps during periods of economic recessions and booms in oth the US and the UK. Starting from an improved understanding of the relationship between gender and the business cycle, we analyse three important...

Does theory aid inflation forecasting? To date, the evidence suggests that there is no systematic advantage of theory-based models of inflation dynamics over their astructural counterparts. This study reconsiders the issue by developing a “semi-structural” forecasting procedure comprised of...

We develop a stochastic overlapping-generations model with endogenously evolving heterogeneous beliefs on the degree of inflation protection to be provided by markets versus the monetary authority. It incorporates adaptive learning from inflation history and imperfect empathy in the cultural...

In the context of the debate on increased integration of Eurozone banking markets, this paper evaluates the impact of the Single Market on bank productivity and assesses the cross-border benefits of integration in terms of technological spillovers. We utilise a parametric metafrontier Divisia...

The more information is available, and the more predictable are events, the better forecasts ought to be. In this paper forecasts by bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters are evaluated for a range of events with varying degrees of predictability and information availability. All three...