In combating the spread of COVID-19, some governments have been reluctant to adopt lockdown policies due to their perceived economic costs. Such costs can, however, arise even in the absence of restrictive policies, if individuals' independent reaction to the virus slows down the economy. This...

Consider a finite data set where each observation consists of a bunde of contingent consumption chosen by an agent from a constraint set of such bundles.  We develop a general procedure for testing the consistency of this data set with a broad class of models of choice under risk and under...

This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output - the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years.  We first...

This paper evaluates whether immigration can mitigate the Dutch disease effects associated with booms in natural resource sectors.  We derive predicted changes in the size of the non-tradable sector from a small general-equilibrium model a la Obstfeld-Rogoff.  Using data for Canadian...

We propose a simple structural model of the upstream sector in the oil and gas industry to study the determinants of costs with a focus on its relationship with the price of oil.  We use the real oil price, data on global drilling activity and costs of drilling to estimate a three-dimensional...

This paper studies how capital-scarce countries should manage volatile resource income.  Existing literature recommends that capital-scarce countries invest domestically, but that volatile resource income should be saved in a foreign sovereign wealth fund.  I reconcile these by combining a...

Oil prices experienced in early life predict differential adult outcomes across Nigerian ethnic groups.  Our difference-in-difference approach compares members of southern ethnicities to other Nigerians from the same birth cohort.  Greater prices in a southern individual's birth year predict...

We use the Euler equation to put forward a back-on-the-envelope rule for the global carbon tax based on a two-box carbon cycle with temperature lag, and a constant elasticity of marginal damages with respect to GDP.  This tax falls with time impatience and intergenerational inequality aversion...

Data from two different primary sources were used to construct indices of house prices (HPI) and rents (RRPI) of residential property located in London and the Home Counties between 1895 and 1939.  The indices were derived using the hedonics method of price index measurement, which extracts the...

This paper presents a new consistent yearly series of gross income (between-group) inequality Ginis for four occupational categories in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela over the period 1900-2011 using a newly assembled wage dataset.  The approach used differentiates...