In a non-stationary world subject to structural breaks, where model and mechanism differ, equilibrium-correction models are a risky device from which to forecast. Equilibrium shifts entail systematic forecast failure, and indeed forecasts will tend to move in the opposite direction to the data....

Most studies fail to find an impact of school inputs on outcomes such as test scores. We argue that this might be a consequence of ignoring the possibility that households respond optimally to changes in school inputs and thus obscure the real effect of such provision on cognitive achievement....

During the nineties, Rwandan households had to cope with severe shocks of war and genocide. In addition, two major structural problems in Rwanda, land scarcity and declining soil fertility, remain unsolved. How do Rwandan households manage? This is an important question from a development...

The paper examines some implications of the wholly reasonable assumption that the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (the EIS) increases with the level of consumption. Then the rich find it easier to substitute future consumption for present consumption than do the poor. In the empirical...

Using original survey data, we document the activities, resources, and governance structure of NGOs operating in Uganda. The NGO sector is funded primarily by international non-governmental organizations and bilateral donors. We find large differences in size and funding across NGOs, with only a...

In common with many emerging market countries, South Africa`s government does not publish balance sheet wealth estimates on a market value basis, as produced in the U.S., U.K., Japan, and elsewhere. Yet without information on the market values of liquid and illiquid personal sector wealth, it is...

Using original survey data on beneficiary assessment, we examine the performance of the NGO sector in Uganda. In general satisfaction with NGO intervention is high. We find evidence that NGOs endeavour to redress the balance between rich and poor communities but also that NGOs neglect isolated...

Using detailed survey data from Uganda, this paper examines coffee producers who sell to itinerant traders or directly to markets, where they can get a higher price but must incur a transport cost. We find that selling to the market is more likely when the quantity sold is large and the market...

Using original survey data, we examine how insecurity affects welfare. Correcting for unobserved heterogeneity and possible endogeneity, we find a strong effect on incomes, school enrollment and health status, but no effect on infant mortality. The effect of insecurity is robust to the inclusion...