When optimal policymaking is subject to dynamic inconsistencies (Kydland and Prescott, 1977), but shocks hit the economy after private agents form expectations, there is a trade off between the need to commit to a policy, and the need to retain discretion so as to respond to shocks. Rogoff...

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the income mobility of older people in Great Britain and the Netherlands, using longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the Dutch Socio-Economic Panel (SEP) for the period 1991 to 1997. Using the full potential of the...

The paper assesses the welfare effects of different ways of allocating input price risk between a regulated utility, consumers and speculators in a futures market. A risk-averse utility setting a fixed retail price requires a price that exceeds expected marginal cost, unless an efficient futures...

We develop a stylized real model of the Asian crisis where an adverse extenal shock can lead to real exchange rate overshooting. Domestic borrowers of foreign capital are bound by debt contracts even when the capital is unable to earn the world rate of return. Following an adverse shock, the...

Firms selling multiple quality-differentiated products frequently alter their product lines when a competitor enters the market. We present a model of multiproduct monopoly and duopoly using a general `upgrades` approach that yields a powerful analytical framework. We provide a simple...

Social capital is thought to play an economic role in the labour market. It may be particularly pertinent in one that is in transition from an administered to a market-oriented system. One factor that may determine success in the underdeveloped Chinese labour market is thus guanxi, the Chinese...

It is universally accepted that children have important effects on household demand patterns. This is usually attributed to the direct effect of children; for example children are food intensive. Alternative inferences are that the observed correlations between children and demand patterns are...

This paper looks at some recent work on estimating quadratic variation using realised variance (RV) - that is sums of M squared returns. This econometrics has been motivated by the advent of the common availability of high frequency financial return data. When the underlying process is a...

In this paper we develop a time series model which allows long-term disequilibriums to have epochs of non-stationarity, giving the impression that long term relationships between economic variables have temporarily broken down, before they endogenously collapse back towards their long term...

Although a number of different models have been suggested for the process that brings workers and firms together in the labour market, none of these performs well in empirical studies of the aggregate matching function. Empirically, the most successful functional form is Cobb-Douglas, for which...