We study two platforms competing for members by investing in network quality.  Quality is complementary to the network size: the marginal utility generated by an additional member increases with the network's quality.  Platforms are imperfect substitutes: a share of the potential members are...

We consider the reasons for nowcasting, how nowcasts can be achieved, and the use and timing of information.  The existence of contemporaneous data such as surveys is a major difference from forecasting, but many of the recent lessons about forecasting remain relevant.  Given the extensive...

Unpredictability arises from intrinsic stochastic variation, unexpected instances of outliers, and unanticipated extrinsic shifts of distributions.  We analyze their properties, relationships, and different effects on the three arenas in the title, which suggests considering three associated...

Search engines enable advertisers to target consumers based on the query they have entered.  In a framework with horizontal product differentiation, imperfect product information and in which consumers incur search costs, I study a game in which advertisers have to choose a price and a set of...

This paper analyses the real economy effects of firms having some shareholders with a short investment horizon on their shareholder register.  Short-term shareholders cause management to be concerned with the path of the share price as well as its ultimate value.  Such shareholders in an...

Using an extension of general-to-specific modelling, based on the recent developments of impulse-indicator saturation (IIS), we consider selecting significant step indicators from a saturating set to capture location shifts.  The approximate non-centrality of the test is derived for a variety...

Consumption in the time of Internet is characterized by extremely low search costs, leading to increased product diversity (the long tail) and large mainstream products (superstars).  In this paper, I show how the mainstream taste can be catered by a niche product, while minority tastes can be...

What kind of tariff reform is likely to raise welfare in situations where tariff revenue is important?  Uncertainty about specification and risk from imprecise parameter estimates of any particular specification reduce the credibility of simulation estimates.  A promising alternative is to...

In an environment where voters face an inference problem on the competence level of policy makers, this paper shows how subjecting these policy makers to reelection can reduce the degree of policy experimentation to the benefit of the status quo.  This may be a reason why some notable policy...

This paper provides micro-level evidence that drug advertising regulations and inspections in China are used by local governments to discriminate against firms from outside the province.  Furthermore, the degree of discrimination varies across firms in that drug manufacturers which have closer...