In models with a representative infinitely lived household, modern versions of tax smoothing imply that the steady-state of government debt should follow a random walk.  This is unlikely to be the case in OLG economies, where the equilibrium interest rate may differ from the policy-maker's rate...

This paper is largely motivated by the empirical observation that GP visits per person under the NHS have increased in England since the mid-1970s, while list sizes have decreased over the same period  A hypothesis consistent with this observation is that larger list sizes are associated with...

A windfall of natural resource revenue (or foreign aid) faces government with choices of how to manage public debt, investment, and the distribution of funds for consumption, particularly if the windfall is both anticipated and temporary.  Standard policy advice follows the permanent income...

Fragmentation of stages of the production process is determined by international cost differences and by the benefits of co-location of related stages.  The interaction between these forces depends on the technological relationships between these stages.  This paper looks at both cost...

Model selection from a general unrestricted model (GUM) can potentially confront three very different environments: over-, exact, and under-specification of the data generation process (DGP).  In the first, and most-studied setting, the DGP is nested in the GUM, and the main role of...

This paper looks at the impact of education on household economic welfare in Sri Lanka over twenty years from 1985 to 2006 using five cross section household survey datasets.  Applying quantile regression techniques the analysis finds that the incremental value to household welfare shows a...

We examine a variety of preference-based definitions of ambiguous events in the context of the smooth ambiguity model.  We first consider the definition proposed in Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji (2005) based on the classic Ellsberg two-urn paradox (Ellsberg (1961)), and show that it...

The debate on trade and growth increasingly focuses on the composition of exports.  Exports of more "sophisticated" products appear to be positively correlated with growth, and upgrading the quality of exports is high on the policy agenda of many countries.  This study presents evidence...

We consider three 'cases studies' of the uses and mis-uses of mathematics in economics and econometrics.  The first concerns economic forecasting, where a mathematical analysis is essential, and is independent of the specific forecasting model and how the process being forecast behaves.  The...

This paper studies banker remuneration in a competitive market for banker talent.  I model, and then calibrate, the default risk of the banks generated by investments and remuneration pressures.  Competing banks prefer to pay their banking staff in bonuses and not in wages as risk sharing on...