We develop forecast-error taxonomies when there are unmodeled variables, forecast 'off-line'.  We establish three surprising results.  Even when an open system is correctly specified in-sample with zero intercepts, despite known future values of strongly exogenous variables, changes in...

This paper develops a model in which supply of a non-renewable resource can adjust through two margins: the rate of depletion and the rate of field opening.  Faster depletion of existing fields means that less of the resource can ultimately be extracted, and optimal depletion of open fields...

We investigate what it means for one act to be more ambiguous than another. The question is evidently analogous to asking what makes one prospect riskier than another, but beliefs are neither objective nor representable by a unique probability. Our starting point is an abstract class of...

Whether they are financial, economic, or psychological, discount rates affect most economic decisions: investment and savings, hirings and firings, defaults and refinancing, financial and economic reforms, learning and experimentation, and any other decision with long-term consequences, such as...

We define a behavioral concept of relevance in the context of decision making under uncertainty.  We argue that this concept provides a sensible answer to the question "What probabilistic environments do an individuals' preferences reveal as mattering to her decisions?" under a symmetry...

 This paper assesses the quantitative impact of ambiguity on the historically observed financial asset returns and prices. The single agent, in a dynamic exchange economy, treats the conditional uncertainty about the consumption and dividends next period as ambiguous. We calibrate the agent's...

The newly dominant interpretation of the British industrial revolution contends that Britain was a high wage economy (HWE) and that the high wages themselves caused industrialization by making profitable labour-saving inventions that were economically inefficient in the context of other relative...

We document empirical patterns of correlation in the adoption of technological innovation and contractual practices among manufacturing firms in Ethiopia and Sudan.  The analysis is based on network data indicating whether any two firms in our sample do business with each other, whether they...

Some scholars have posited that mutual banks have fewer incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking than joint-stock banks because of the unique structure of property rights in the mutual firm.  This paper uses their theory as a framework to explain the divergent risk-taking behavior of...

This paper uses data from the 1833 Factory Inquiry to assess male and female occupations and earnings in factory textile production.  This is contrasted with evidence drawn from various sources on male and female employment in domestic industry.  1780-1850 was a period of dramatic change in...