During the past decade or so empirical literature on comparative development of nations has turned to investigation of "deep" or determinants of productivity and capital intensity, such as institutions, trade, geography and human capital.  In this paper I revisit this debate and make three...

Building models for high dimensional portfolios is important in risk management and asset allocation.  Here we propose a novel and fast way of estimating models of time-varying covariances that overcome an undiagnosed incidental parameter problem which has troubled existing methods when applied...

Tenured public officials such as judges are often thought to be indifferent to the concerns of the elctorate and, as a result, potentially lacking in discipline but unlikely to pander to public opinion.  We investigate this proposition empirically using data on promotion decisions taken by...

When breaks occur, equilibrium-correction models (EqCMs) based on cointegration face forecasting problems.  We investigate approaches to alleviate forecast failure following a location shift, including updating, intercept corrections, differencing, and estimating the future impact of an...

China's economy grew at an average annual real growth rate of 9 percent over the last three decades.  Despite the vast empirical literature on testing the neoclassical model of economic growth using data on various groups of countries, very few cross-country regressions include China and none...

In this paper we develop a dynamic structural life-cycle model of labor supply behavior which fully accounts for the effects of income tax and transfers on labor supply incentives.  Additionally, the model recognizes the demand side driven rationing risk that might prevent individuals from...

This paper surveys new research concerning bargaining within supply chains and its implications for buyer power.  The paper explores the implications of the research on supermarket supply chains for primary, secondary and private-label branded goods.  The empirical base in support of the...

This paper models the implications of endogenous group formation for efficient risk-sharing contracts in the dynamic limited commitment model.  Endogenising group formation requires that any risk-sharing arrangement is not only stable with respect to individual deviations but also with respect...

This paper develops an asymptotic estimation theory for nonlinear autoregressive models with conditionally heteroskedastic errors.  We consider a functional coefficient autoregression of order p (AR(p)) with the conditional variance specified as a general nonlinear first order generalized...

Forecasts are presented for the 12-month ahead US rate of inflation measured by the chain weighted personal consumer expenditure deflator, PC, and its three main components: non-durable goods, durable goods and services.  Monthly models are estimated for 1974 to 1999, and pseudo out-of-sample...