In this paper, we use a three-period panel of Tanzanian households to explore the determinants of earnings and earnings growth from 2004 to 2006.  In doing so, we draw particular attention to the role of education and to the importance of heterogeneity between more and less formal...

This paper analyzes collective decision making when individual preferences evolve through learning.  Votes are affected by their anticipated effect on future preferences.  The analysis is conducted in a two-arm bandit model with a safe alternative and a risky alternative whose payoff...

We investigate whether the set of available enforcement mechanisms affects the formation of risk sharing relations by applying dyadic regression analysis to data from a specifically designed behavioural experiment, two surveys and a genealogical mapping exercise.  During the experiment...

This paper makes three contributions to the literature on intertemporal poverty measurement, in particular the aggregation of a measure of wellbeing over time and across people.  Firstly we conduct an exhaustive analysis of properties of intertemporal poverty measures, identifying relationships...

The heterogeneous demographic composition of South African households means that the way that household income or expenditure is converted into an individual-level welfare measure is likely to matter.  This paper examines the monetary and time costs of the most common economic dependents in...

We consider forecasting from age-period-cohort models, as well as from the extended chain-ladder model.  The parameters of these models are known only to be identified up to linear trends.  Forecasts from such models may therefore depend on arbitrary linear trends.  A condition for invariant...

The Meade and Stone approach to national accounting (first published for the UK in 1941) eventually provided the template for the United System of National Accounts.  Feinstein's historical national accounts for the UK developed out of this project and built on its earlier contributions.  He...

Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, a fact often neglected in modeling consumer price inflation.  Using a novel methodology grounded in theory, the ten sub-components of the consumer price index (excluding mortgage interest rates), are modeled separately and forecast,...

We present cross-country empirical evidence on the role of natural resources in explaining long-run differences in private investment as a share of GDP in a sample of 72 developing countries.  Our empirical results suggest important differences between oil and non-oil resources.  While revenue...

This paper explores two hypotheses concerning the role of status in relationships between rich and poor in traditional communities by analyzing who goes to whose funerals in six Zimbabwean villages.  Funerals allow status to be observed because non-attendance is a sign of disrespect.  We find...