Structural models` inflation forecasts are often inferior to those of naive devices. This chapter theoretically and empirically assesses this for UK annual and quarterly inflation, using the theoretical framework in Clements and Hendry (1998, 1999). Forecasts from equilibrium-correction...

Interpersonal relationships have long been suspected of shaping agrarian institutions, probably because weak formal institutions must be supplemented by interpersonal trust. This is particularly true for informal risk sharing, a fundamental risk coping mechanism for the rural poor (e.g. Mark R....

We compare the two most common bidding processes for selling a company or other asset when participation is costly to buyers. In an auction all entry decisions are made prior to any bidding. In a sequential bidding earlier entrants can make bids before later entrants choose whether to compete....

The empirical process of the residuals from general autoregressions is investigated. If an intercept is included in the regression, the empirical process is asymptotically Caussian and free of nuissance parameters. This contrasts the known result that in the unit root case without intercept the...

This paper provides an overview of school education in India. Firstly, it places India`s educational achievements in international perspective, especially against countries with which it is now increasingly compared such as BRIC economies in general and China in particular. India does well...

Standard poverty analysis makes statements about deprivation after the veil of uncertainty has been lifted. Nonetheless, the term `vulnerability` has been used as a tool to remark that uncertainty and risk do matter. In this paper, we define `vulnerability to poverty` as the magnitude of the...

The paper uses the Lewis model as a framework for examining the labour market progress of two labour-abundant countries, China and South Africa, towards labour shortage and generally rising labour real incomes. In the acuteness of their rural-urban divides, forms of migrant labour, rapid...

This paper uses a combination of nationally representative individual level time use data combined with household and community data to futher our understanding of time use, and how infrastructure impacts on gender disaggregated time poverty. With a common, and growing, perception in the...

This paper tests whether manufacturing exports pay more to educated workers in an effort to ascertain whether the productivity of human capital is raised by exports. Using a panel of matched employer-employee data from Morocco, we fail to find convincing evidence that exporters pay more to...

This paper uses a 13-year panel of individuals in Tanzania to assess how adult mortality shocks affect both short and long-run consumption growth of surviving household members. Using unique data which tracks individuals from 1991 to 2004, we examine consumption growth, controlling for a set of...