A Rejoinder to Goldman Sach's J. Hatzius' "The Un-Godley Private Sector Deficit" in US Economic Analyst (27 July).

The U.S. economy is probably now in recession, and a prolonged period of subnormal growth and rising unemployment is likely unless there is another round of policy changes. A further relaxation of fiscal policy will probably be needed, but if a satisfactory rate of growth is to be sustained,...

The United States should now be prepared for one of the deepest and most intractable recessions of the post-World War II period, with no natural process of recovery in prospect unless a large and complex reorientation of policy occurs both here and in the rest of the world. The grounds for...

If the United States's balance of trade does not improve, the country could eventually find itself in a "debt trap," the author says. The aim of this paper, the second in a series offering Godley's strategic analysis, is to display what seems reasonably likely to happen if world output recovers...

The purpose of the paper is not to make short-term predictions about the life expectancy of the current economic expansion in the United States, but to determine if the present stance of fiscal and trade policy is appropriate looking to the medium turn. The expansion has been generated by...