Abstract In epidemiology, the modeling of epicenters is important both conceptually and mathematically. This paper is an attempt to model epicenters mathematically. We present an algorithm to find new epicenters. Applying our model for the data related to COVID-19 pandemic, we obtain epicenters...

Abstract Introduction Time series models are one of the frequently used methods to describe the pattern of spreading an epidemic. Methods We presented a new family of time series models able to represent the cumulative number of individuals that contracted an infectious disease from the start to...

Abstract This paper reports a broad study using epidemic-related counting data of COVID-19 disease caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). The considered dataset refers to 119 countries’ daily counts of reported cases and deaths in a fixed period. For the data analysis, it has been...

Abstract Background While the number of detected COVID-19 infections are widely available, an understanding of the extent of undetected cases is urgently needed for an effective tackling of the pandemic. The aim of this work is to estimate the true number of COVID-19 (detected and undetected)...

Abstract Objectives Meteorological factors and climatic variability have an immense influence on the transmission of infectious diseases and significantly impact human health. Present study quantifies the delayed effect of atmospheric temperature on the risk of hospitalization due to the...

Abstract Mediation analysis is popular in examining the extent to which the effect of an exposure on an outcome is through an intermediate variable. When the exposure is subject to misclassification, the effects estimated can be severely biased. In this paper, when the mediator is binary, we...

Abstract Suppose we are interested in the effect of variable X on variable Y . If X and Y both influence, or are associated with variables that influence, a common outcome, called a collider , then conditioning on the collider (or on a variable influenced by the collider – its “child”)...

Abstract Researchers interested in the effects of exposure spikes on an outcome need tools to identify unexpectedly high values in a time series. However, the best method to identify spikes in time series is not known. This paper aims to fill this gap by testing the performance of several spike...

Abstract Interrupted time series are increasingly being used to evaluate the population-wide implementation of public health interventions. However, the resulting estimates of intervention impact can be severely biased if underlying disease trends are not adequately accounted for. Control series...