From 2004 to 2015, the market perception of the sovereign risks of the euro area government bonds experienced several different phases, reflected in a clear time structure of the correlation matrix between the yield changes. “Core” and “peripheral” bonds cluster in a bloc-like structure,...

The financial assistance the International Monetary Fund provides is expected to catalyze private capital flows. Such a catalytic effect has, however, proven empirically elusive. This paper deviates from the standard approach based on the net capital inflow to study instead the Fund's catalytic...

The growing literature on macroprudential regulation focuses on how a combination monetary and macroprudential policies can boost financial stability. We contribute to this literature by developing a DSGE model that assesses the effectiveness of countercyclical capital regulation in small open...

We assess the role of external debt in shaping the dynamics of domestic credit cycles. Using quarterly data for 40 countries between 1980 and 2015, we examine four dimensions of external debt composition: instrument, sector, currency and maturity. We show that the first two dimensions provide...

The main purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it aims to estimate the effect of the tightening of regulatory capital requirements on the real economy during a credit upswing. Second, it intends to show whether applying a counter-cyclical capital buffer measure, as per the Basel III rules,...

Contagion has mostly been interpreted and tested as a break from a stable linear correlation of financial markets caused by an extraordinary shock. This paper argues that quantile regression can provide a tool to investigate alterations in other features of financial returns' distribution caused...

We assess the conditions under which exchange rate fluctuations are contractionary for firm-level investment. To address this question, we match firm-level balance sheet data with a large dataset of firm-level bonds for about 1,000 firms from 36 emerging market economies over the period...

This paper studies the sovereign ratings of 74 countries from 2003 to 2016, disentangling rating drivers into a ‘fundamental' and ‘judgement' component based on Moody's methodology. We show that the agency applies judgement inconsistently across regions, income, rating levels and factors,...

Measures of sovereign and bank risk show occasional bouts of increased correlation, setting the stage for vicious and virtuous feedback loops. This paper models the macroeconomic phenomena underlying such bouts using CDS data for 10 euro area countries. The results show that sovereign risk feeds...

This paper assesses the extent to which fiscal transfers smooth regional shocks in three large federations: the US, Canada and Australia. We find that fiscal transfers offset 4-11 percent of idiosyncratic shocks (risk-sharing) and 13-24 percent of permanent shocks (redistribution). This fiscal...