This paper proposes a way of using observational pretest data for the design of experiments. In particular, this paper trains a random forest on the pretest data and stratifies the allocation of treatments to experimental units on the predicted dependent variables. This approach reduces much of...

This study derives an optimal pairs trading strategy based on a Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and applies it to high-frequency data of the S&P 500 constituents from1998 to 2015. Our model provides optimal entry and exit signals by maximizing the expected return expressed in terms of...

Using employer-employee data from Germany, this paper analyzes the relationship between wages and past and contemporaneous labor market conditions. Specifically, we test the implications of implicit contract models (Beaudry and DiNardo, 1991) and an on-the-job search model (Hagedorn and...

This paper is the first to analyze how much the probability of selecting a worker from a pool of applicants fluctuates over the business cycle. We use the German Job Vacancy Survey to construct the selection rate on the regional, industry, and national level and show that it is negatively...

This paper shows that the matching function and the Beveridge curve in the United States exhibit strong nonlinearities over the business cycle. These patterns can be replicated by enhancing a search and matching model with idiosyncratic productivity shocks for new contacts. Large negative...

We exploit the 1996 reform of the German child benefit program to identify the causal effect of child benefits on fertility. Generally, the reform increased child benefits. However, the exact amount of the increase varied by household income and sibship size. We use this heterogeneity of the...

In recent years, machine learning research has gained momentum: New developments in the field of deep learning allow for multiple levels of abstraction and are starting to supersede well-known and powerful tree-based techniques mainly operating on the original feature space. All these methods...

Partial cointegration is a weakening of cointegration that allows for the "cointegrating" process to contain a random walk and a mean-reverting component. We derive its representation in state space, provide a maximum likelihood based estimation routine, and a suitable likelihood ratio test....

There is strong empirical evidence for Cobb-Douglas matching functions. We show in this paper that this widely found relation between matches on the one hand and unemployment and vacancies on the other hand can be the result of different underlying mechanisms. Obviously, it can be generated by...

This paper investigates determinants and wage effects of educational mismatch for both natives and immigrants in Germany. Using the GSOEP panel data from 1991 to 2013, I find that conditional on educational attainment immigrants face a higher incidence of overeducation compared to their native...