Machine learning is increasingly applied to time series data, as it constitutes an attractive alternative to forecasts based on traditional time series models. For independent and identically distributed observations, cross-validation is the prevalent scheme for estimating out-of-sample...

Using the IAB Job Vacancy Survey for Germany, we look into the black box of recruiting intensity and hiring practices. Our paper shows three important channels for hiring, namely vacancy posting, the selectivity of hiring (labor selection), and the number of search channels. While vacancy...

Using the IAB Job Vacancy Survey for Germany, we look into the black box of recruiting intensity and hiring practices. Our paper shows three important channels for hiring, namely vacancy posting, the selectivity of hiring (labor selection), and the number of search channels. While vacancy...

Real wage rigidity is known to create a substantial trade-off between inflation and employment stabilization for monetary policy in New Keynesian models with search frictions on the labor market. This paper shows that, quantitatively, this finding hinges very much on the assumption of constant...

We use an experiment to study whether market competition can reduce anomalous behaviour in games. In different treatments, we employ two alternative mechanisms, the random mechanism and the auction mechanism, to allocate the participation rights to the red hat puzzle game, a well-known logical...

This paper shows that popular linear fixed-effects panel-data estimators (first-differences, within-transformation) are biased and inconsistent when applied in a discrete-time hazard setting, that is, one with the outcome variable being a binary dummy indicating an absorbing state, even if the...

Using data from the representative IAB Establishment Panel in Germany and estimating a panel probit model with fixed effects, this paper finds a negative relationship between the existence of owner-management in an establishment and the probabilities of having a works council or a collective...

This paper proposes a new approach to evaluate the macroeconomic effects of the "Hartz IV" reform, which reduced the generosity of long-term unemployment benefits. We propose a model with different unemployment durations, where the reform initiates both a partial effect and an equilibrium...

Markets are increasingly used as information aggregation mechanisms to predict future events. If policy makers make use markets, parties may attempt to manipulate the market in order to influence decisions. We experimentally find that policymakers could still benefit from following information...

This paper describes the updated version of the Administrative Wage and Labor Market Flow Panel (AWFP, v1.1). The AWFP is a dataset on labor market flows and stocks for the universe of German establishments covering the years 1975–2014. It contains data on job flows, worker flows, and wages...