Quantifying the magnitude and establishing the timing of the pass-through of oil price changes to consumer prices is crucial for forecasting inflation. Characterizing this pass-through is particularly important because oil prices tend to undergo wide fluctuations

The Federal Reserve's G.17 release on industrial production (IP) and capacity utilization published on September 15, 2017, included one of the first estimates of the impact on a specific measure of economic activity by Hurricane Harvey, which made landfall in Texas on August 25. As reported in...

This note considers a puzzle: why has information technology (IT) equipment investment in the National income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) been so weak since 2007 at the same time that financial reports indicate massive increases in capital expenditures by IT service companies?

This note introduces a shadow rate term structure model based on OIS rates and surveys to quantify federal funds rate expectations and term premiums over horizons ranging from one month to five years. The model implies that term premiums vary over time and can be substantial in magnitude, even...

Data collected under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) reveal that the largest banks have significantly reduced their share of mortgage lending to low- and moderate-income (LMI) households in recent years

The U.S. unemployment rate has fallen steadily since 2010, indicating broad-based improvement in the labor market. However, disaggregated measures reveal divergences between regions and types of workers

The target range for the federal funds rate has increased a few times since its liftoff from the effective lower bound (ELB) in December 2015 and currently stands at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. According to standard macroeconomic models, ELB risk--how likely it is for the policy rate to be constrained...

In this note, we describe an algorithm, developed in Carlson, Shan, and Warusawitharana (2013), to match banks that are geographically close and are similar in size and business model. Concurrently, we also release a data set of matched banks obtained from applying this algorithm from 1998 to...

Given the presumed role of inflation expectations in influencing actual inflation, it is important to understand the implications of the survey expectations and whether differences from official estimates contain an important signal