Foresight has printed many articles about the calculation, interpretation, and especially the dangers of percentage error metrics, such as the MAPE. Stephan and Roland now add to the list of dangers, showing how you can be led astray if you use the MAPE to select a best forecasting method or to...

In our previous issue (Summer 2011), Steve Morlidge introduced a set of guiding principles for the organizational forecasting process. To make progress, he argues in this second installment, “forecasters need to move beyond the exchange of experience and the simplistic peddling of best...

Finney’s article focuses attention on the variance between revenue forecasts and the budget for the year and what growth is required for revenues to catch up with budget. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

Rieg and Schoder reply to the article mentioned, published in the same issue of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

Foresight’s Spring 2011 issue included Robert Rieg and Ramona Schoder’s article “Corporate Prediction Markets: Pitfalls and Barriers” on the hurdles that must be overcome to properly establish a corporate prediction market (CPM). They enumerated four principal obstacles: (1) identifying...

Gordon reviews these two recently published books. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

Goodwin covers the pros and cons of complexity in advanced forecasting methods and warns that recommendations based on them should be supported by strong evidence of reliability. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

With this article, Foresight introduces a new section of methods tutorials. Our intention is to provide a broad overview of a method for those who are not currently specialists in that particular area, and possibly to stimulate new thinking about the proper use and goals of the methodology....

Foresight’s Summer 2010 issue contained a letter to the editor from David Hawitt, suggesting that forecast managers would be more receptive to hearing about forecast accuracy rather than forecast error. If forecast error is measured by the average absolute percentage error (MAPE), then...

Where in an organization should the forecasting function be located? This most fundamental question is often overlooked, and there are organizations that have stumbled into a preliminary placement without having really thought through the options. In this first installment of their new column,...