While there has been a lot of discussion about prediction markets, including several articles in Foresight, the empirical record of their use in corporations (CPM) is meager, with hardly a handful of cases published. Robert and Ramona look at the track record of CPM with a skeptical eye,...

Alfred Cuzán offers his postmortem on forecasts made for the midterm elections for the U.S. House of Representatives. His evaluation compares the judgment of three experts, six statistical models, and one (betting) prediction market. It seems like the best political forecasts emerge when...

Hoover comments on concerns expressed by David Hawitt in a letter to the editor of Foresight, published in issue 18. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

In Foresight’s Hot New Research Section, Goodwin comments on a recent article by Jerker Denrell and Christine Fang, published in Management Science, in which the authors warn against trusting intuition while overlooking the underlying rate. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

Many forecasting models designed to track and forecast trend and seasonality do well enough for ordinary demand conditions but are challenged by exceptional patterns such as sudden large jumps and turning points. Wil Gorr proposes a framework for exceptional-demand situations that is based on...

Neelie Kroes, while antitrust commissioner for the EU, said, “In the current economic context, all companies are looking for cost-effective IT solutions. Systems based on open-source software are increasingly emerging as viable alternatives to proprietary solutions.” Stephan Kolassa and Rob...

With issue 17, Foresight begins a new column on prediction markets, an increasingly widespread mechanism for aggregating predictions from dispersed individuals. Column Editor Andreas Graefe will keep you apprised of new developments in the field and how likely these are to succeed. For an...

Two very important business processes are Lean Manufacturing and Executive S&OP. Both processes require grouping products into families but for very different uses, so there is a sharp difference between how each process defines a family. In this column, Bob Stahl and Bill Kerber show how to...

Goodwin defines hindsight bias and gives examples, examines its psychological basis, shows how it may interfere with the forecasting process, and suggests ways it might be at least partly overcome. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010

Carolyn Allmon reviews two recently published books: Business Forecasting: A Practical, Comprehensive Resource for Managers and Practitioners by Robert A. Krueger and Strategic Business Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Shaping the Future of Your Business by Simon Ramo and Ronald Sugar....