This is the final article of our three-part series by Joe Smith on forecast process design. Part 1, The Alignment of People, Process, and Tools, published in the Fall 2009 issue, examined the elements of effective forecast process design. Part 2, FRAM: The Forecast Reliability Assurance Model,...

Trend projection is a critical element of most forecasting models. Automatic forecasting methods typically glean trends from past data and extrapolate these trends forward, but do so without consideration of the forces that nurture the trend – and that eventually may turn on it. Adam...

Interview with Adam Gordon, author of Future Savvy Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010

Nick and Des discuss an approach implemented at AstraZeneca to forecast the commercial success of new pharmaceutical products. The article is a virtual tutorial for group assessment of the uncertainties for any new product with long development times. Copyright International Institute of...

John Mello argues that successful execution of S&OP in a business is inevitably linked to corporate culture. The culture of the organization must ensure effective collaboration among its units by supporting trust, openness, and a climate where departments and individuals accept responsibility....

In the Summer 2009 issue of Foresight, Pearson described Short-Term Energy Outlook, a report prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration and found at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html, as a source for free national and census-division economic forecasts, available...

Interview with Steve Morlidge, writer of the lead article in issue 16 of Foresight and of the recently published book Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010

Generating item-level forecasts can be complex, time consuming, and frustrating for forecasters, and can produce forecasts so inaccurate that they are not used in the planning process. In this case study of V&M Star, management uses Executive S&OP to refocus its forecasting process to...

In Part 1 of this series – “The Alignment of People, Process, and Tools,” from the Fall 2009 issue of Foresight – Joe Smith discussed the contribution of these three ingredients to effective forecast process design. In this follow-up article, he maps out specific steps of process design,...

Based upon his forthcoming book Future Ready: How to Master the Art of Business Forecasting, Steve Morlidge – a finance professional by background – argues here that forecasters need to adopt a broader perspective on the role of strategic forecasting and a longer-range view on forecasts...