Interview with Peg Young, Bureau of Transportation Statistics Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

“We have become increasingly aware that our businesses and societies are embedded in complex systems – the economic system, the climate system, and so on – which are globally linked and may be susceptible to sudden change. Forecasting tools developed for the demands of classical astronomy...

Orrell and McSharry, authors of A Systems Approach to Forecasting (issue 14 of Foresight) reply to commentaries by Roy Batchelor, and Paul Goodwin and Robert Fildes. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

Orrell reviews the four steps Adam Gordon advises in the forecasting process: discerning the forecast’s true purpose, measuring the quality of the forecasting methodology, analyzing the systems that can help untangle the complexities, and examining how the forecaster handles uncertainty....

Paul Goodwin reports on recent research into the theory that combining forecasts from different methods or sources can result in greater forecast accuracy. He cites studies by George Kapetanios, as well as several other researchers, to support the conclusion that "combining forecasts is...

At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election polls, a panel of American political experts, the Iowa Electronic Market, and quantitative models. The day before the election, Polly predicted that the Republican ticket's share...

This is the authors' second survey on the measurement of forecast error. They reported the results of their first survey in the Summer 2008 issue of Foresight (Green & Tashman, 2008). The question they asked in that survey was whether to define forecast error as Actual minus Forecast (A-F) or...

Given the virtual explosion of interest in Sales & Operations Planning, Foresight commissioned two reviews of the book "Sales and Operations Planning-Best Practices: Lessons Learned from Worldwide Companies," by John Dougherty and Christopher Gray. The first is from an academic, Professor John...

Given the virtual explosion of interest in Sales & Operations Planning, Foresight commissioned two reviews of the book "Sales and Operations Planning-Best Practices: Lessons Learned from Worldwide Companies," by John Dougherty and Christopher Gray. The first is from an academic, Professor John...

Game playing has been defined as the intentional manipulation of a forecasting process to gain personal, group, or corporate advantage. And the consequences can be severe. John Mello provides a fascinating description of the games forecasters can play, identifying the organizational environments...