Allmon states that the authors—Martin, Doherty, and Harrop—maintain that retail forecasting should start and end at the store level. This can be accomplished by using what they call flowcasting, “a multi-echelon, retail, inventory-management business process designed to (1) forecast...

In an earlier Foresight article, William Bassin proposed a theoretical rule of thumb to choose between including or excluding an explanatory variable in a regression model. Peter takes a critical look at that rule of thumb, and he shows that it is based on the unrealistic assumption of zero...

John and Aris distinguish between forecase-accuracy metrics, which measure the errors resulting from a forecast method, and accuracy-implication metrics, which measure the achievement of the organization's stockholding and service-level goals. Both measurements are important. The correct choice...

Some traditional measurements of forecast accuracy are unsuitable for intermittent demand data because they can give infinite or undefined values. Rob Hyndman summarizes these forecast accuracy metrics and explains their potential failings. He also introduces a new metric-the mean absolute...

Sharda and Delen describe the widely publicized and very successful model they have created to predict the financial performance of a movie before its release to the theaters. Based on neural networks, the model attempts to classify a movie into one of nine categories, ranging from a "flop' to a...

Oliva and Watson describe how organizational biases arise from the different incentives, agendas, and blind spots of the various functional areas of a business and how they compromise forecast accuracy and disrupt the supply chain process. They present a case study-the Leitax Corporation-of how...

Weekly forecasts are important for call centers, but they present a host of challenges, including "recurring irregular occurrences" such as paydays and billing cycles. In this article, Dan describes his techniques for cleaning the weekly data, accounting for the irregular-event effects, and...

Call centers and other organizations that deal in real-time environments must be able to forecast in days, hours, and even minutes. They can do so successfully by finding smaller bits of data hidden within the "macro" data. Jay shows how this nano-forecasting focus can be employed to project...

Mark draws upon his experience in audits of the forecast process at many large companies to identify the key barriers to forecast process improvement and to show how these barriers may be overcome. He examines the critical role of the forecast audit, discusses the need for changes in...

Kusters gives an overview of the three forecasting engines found in three mySAP modules. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006