Many software programs, including Excel, make it easy to fit exponential trends (that is compound interest growth) to time series data. However, with Excel and some other products, there is a big problem: the exponential functions are done incorrectly because they use logarithmic...

Based on their long experience on supply chain consulting, Gotz and Kohler evaluate the new SAP Forecasting and Replenishment (F&R) solution. Many retail companies use mySAP ERP or its long-standing predecessor SAP R/3. The authors compare the forecasting and planning functionality of F&R with...

Roy comments, "It's not too often that I review a book that was published five years ago and is currently remaindered at 20 cents on Amazon.com." In 1999 Glassman and Hassett had issued a stock market forecast that was overoptimistic by 260 percent, a prediction that Roy says "deserves some kind...

In this article Jim discusses 1) forecast error calculations for intermittent (sporadic) demand items, 2) issues with measuring forecast error aggregated across items, and 3) metrics for tracking forecast accuracy improvement over time. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006

Paul explains what the Excel program is and what it is not. He emphasizes the importance of using "the right tool for the right job" and reports the advantages and disadvantages of the software for forecasting purposes. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

Simon Clarke, Manager of Forecasting and Planning for Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc., led a corporate team that engineered a radical transformation of the forecasting process. The team took his organization from an unstructured, decentralized process to a disciplined internal collaboration of over...

Bruce describes his methodology for testing the accuracy of statistical software, analyzes Microsoft's track record for providing useful software for forecasting, then concludes with warnings, faults, and workarounds to help deal with these challenges. Copyright International Institute of...

For many companies, forecasting is more than just an attempt to predict the future; it is the basis for worldwide production, capacity, and transportation planning. In this article, Seeger first describes how the forecasting process is managed at ContiTech Power Transmission Group to plan global...

Scott and Alfred describe Allan Lichtman's Keys Model as an example of an index method of forecasting, which assigns ratings of favorable, unfavorable, or indeterminate to influencing variables. They describe how index methods have been applied in other decision-making contexts, and they discuss...

When financial columnist James Surowiecki wrote The Wisdom of Crowds, he wished to explain the successes and failures of markets (an example of a "crowd") and to understand why the average opinion of a crowd is frequently more accurate than the opinions of most of its individual members. In this...