Bob Samohyl analyzes a manufacturing company that forecasts orders without a statistical model, on the basis of executive judgment alone. He shows how the company can quickly determine how much potential there is for improving forecast accuracy using even simple statistical models, also noting...

The International Institute of Forecasters, publisher of Foresight, sponsored a competition awarding a $1000 prize to the modelers that most accurately forecast the outcome of the 2006 U. S. Congressional election. This brief article describes models previously used to forecast midterm...

These three authors examine a manufacturing company that had developed sophisticated statistical models but still had not obtained satisfactory results for a key product line. They raise the interesting question of whether resources would be better spent in a careful audit of the business...

Banerji comments that Taleb's book "is really an engaging but idiosyncratic, opinionated essay on why people, including professional forecasters, are bad at prediction." Taleb "provides wide-ranging, anecdotal, logical and scientific evidence of misperceptions about the role of randomness in...

Credit Scoring refers to the techniques that help lenders decide whether or not to approve loan applications. The author discusses the origins of credit scoring, describes the major techniques in use, and examines the recent advances in the field designed to deal with new regulations and a more...

Credible: Capable of being believed and worthy of confidence. Based on years of experience, surveys of academics, and knowledge of best practices, the author offers solid advice on enhancing the credibility of forecasts and on reducing forecast errors. Copyright International Institute of...

"Semi-new" is the label that author Bill Tonetti assigns to products that are not truly new, but rather result from extensions and modifications of existing products. In this article, Bill shows how to use data that exist on the predecessor products to forecast demand for the semi-new products....

Lichtman explain his Keys model, which has successfully predicted (more than one year in advance) the popular vote winner of every presidential election from 1984-2004. He then applies the model to the 2008 presidential election. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

Thomas Edison's inventions have had an unparalleled influence on modern life. But Edison was also a technological forecaster, offering his vision of which technologies would (and would not) dominate our lives in the future. Steve Schnaars looks back on Edison's 13 technological and social...

While most forecast-error metrics are averages of forecast errors, Tom argues that, for intermittent-demand series, we should focus on the demand distribution and assess forecast error at each distinct level of demand. He illustrates how this can be done, and he suggests use of the chi-square...