Peter provides a case study in the use of dynamic modeling to forecast call volumes and to estimate how these volumes are affected by the timing of direct mail campaigns. Dynamic modeling, variously called dynamic regression, ARIMAX, and transfer function modeling, is a driver-based...

In this column, Jim examines the functionality and implementation of demand-planning software, a market that has received very little scrutiny to date in forecasting books and journals. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

Jim reviews the effectiveness of this software product, which he says provides "a high level of demand-planning and forecasting capabilities, but at a price point that is affordable to small-to-medium-sized organizations." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

Clive reflects on the changes that have taken place during his time as a forecasting practitioner at British Telecommunications PLC (BT) and its predecessors, back to and including the Post office. He does not intend this paper to be a definitive study of forecasting methods in the...

Many of us make judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts. But do these improve accuracy? Paul Goodwin explains when you should avoid the temptation to adjust and shows how the accuracy of your interventions can be improved. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

No one came closer to predicting the outcome of the 2004 U. S. presidential election than the team at politicalforecasting.com, also called pollyvote.com. They tell us how they did it and whether they think they can do it again. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

Both the providers and the users of forecasts appear to view judgmental adjustments as a sign of caring about the forecast. Although fine tunings are expected to increase practitioner satisfaction, adjustments may sometimes backfire and reduce forecast quality. Dilek and Sinan recommend that...

In this first Foresight article on implementing new forecasting processes, Tom Ross of Brooks Sports describes the lessons learned in moving from purely judgmental sales forecasts, which were largely ignored by production planners, to forecasts that formally combine the inputs of statistical...

Slow items with intermittent and lumpy demand patterns can make up a substantial part of an organization's inventory. They are difficult to forecast and some of the most popular forecasting methods are unsuitable. The author describes the principal methods for forecasting intermittent and lumpy...

The authors report the results of several forecasting experiments they conducted with university students and experts, producing some amazing results. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005