Instead of using your judgment to combine judgmental and statistical forecasts, just average them. Also, using your judgment to adjust a statistical forecast is better than modifying your judgmental forecast on the basis of a statistical one. Judgmental adjustment is likely to be more successful...

Based on forecasting audits conducted in six companies and interviews with the corporate forecasters, John Mello distinguishes between the corporate values and strategies that benefit the sales-forecasting process and those that undermine it. We may recognize our own organizations in his study...

A technically sound forecast goes nowhere if it is not accepted by those in power, whether they are politicians or upper management. Elaine notes that often the forecast gets manipulated to satisfy political ends or meet targets and plans. Politics is also about biases, motivations, and...

Michael explains his term "forecast value added' (FVA) metric and lists the usual stages in a typical consensus process. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

Paul discusses several key advantages to using CPFR, as Seifert explains the system. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

The author demystifies neural networks, describing what neural networks do, when they seem useful as forecasting tools, and what the difficulties are with their use and implementation. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

The addition of an explanatory variable to a regression model can increase the model's historical explanatory power but decrease forecast accuracy. The difficult question is whether or not to use this explanatory variable in forecasting. The author shows how to estimate the expected effect of...

Nada explains why this book is "a must read for any business professional who wants to gain a complete understanding of the business forecasting process." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

Rob Dhuyvetter shares his ideas and experience at the J. R. Simplot Company on the combining of statistical and judgmental forecasts. His main recommendation is to bring managerial judgment directly into the development of the statistical forecasting model rather than limiting managerial...

The consumer-packaged goods industry (CPG) gives high priority to linking forecasts of consumer demand to shipments forecasts, in order to capture the impact of marketing activities on factory shipments. In this case study of a CPG company, Charlie Chase shows how to consider marketing and...