Batchelor, Roy - In: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting (2012) 25, pp. 26-30
Past occurrences of an event very often serve as analogies for forecasting the impact of the new occurrence of this event. The reliability of the analogy, Roy tells us, lies in the proper balance of data interpretation and good judgment. Uncritical examination of the past data can lead to false...