Despite long-term interest whether welfare benefits motivate fertility, evidence from research has not been consistent. This paper contributes new evidence to this debate by investigating the fertility effect of a German welfare reform. The reform decreased the household income of families on...

This study analyzes the influence of mental and physical health, coping abilities, cooperativeness, and work commitment on the transition from apprenticeship training to a first job. In doing so, we first investigate transitions to regular employment within six months post-graduation. Second, we...

This paper develops a large-scale application to improve the labour market matching process with model- and algorithm-based statistical methods. We use comprehensive administrative data on employment biographies covering individual and job-related information of workers in Germany. We estimate...

We compare real wage differences between centralized and peripheral areas and highly centralized and peripheral areas using vast information of German administrative data that contains more than 2.8 Million individuals and 660,000 firms. We provide substantial empirical evidence that most of the...

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused major disruptions in international trade and has raised concerns about adverse effects on international supply chains. Using a unique establishment survey matched with administrative data from Germany, we provide novel evidence on how establishments have adjusted...

We study a set of hypothetical reforms of child benefits in Germany, using a static tax-benefit microsimulation model augmented with endogenous labour supply and take-up choices (IAB-MSM). We distinguish between a reform of the universal non-means-tested child benefit, a reform of the...

As vaccines for Covid-19 became available, in 2021 many countries introduced an obligation for employees to provide proof of their Covid status in the workplace, in Germany also known as the 3G rule (vaccinated, recovered, tested). In view of the controversial debate, concerns arose that...

In this paper, we compare two popular statistical learning techniques, logistic regression and random forest, with respect to their ability to classify jobseekers by their likelihood to become long-term unemployed. We study the performance of the two methods before the COVID-19 pandemic as well...

During the COVID-19 pandemic there were supply chain bottlenecks all over the world with regard to raw materials and intermediate products. In this article, we examine how these constraints affected labour market development. For an empirical panel analysis, we combine survey data and...

With the Russian war against Ukraine, global economic conditions changed abruptly. We provide first causal evidence of effects of the energy crisis on Germany as Europe's most important economy. Combining cost structure data, national accounts and administrative labour market data, we identify...