This paper studies the role of expectations and monetary policy on the economy's response to climate actions. We show that in a stochastic environment and without the standard assumption of perfect rationality of agents, there is more uncertainty regarding the path and the economic impact of a...

Transitioning to a low-carbon economy involves risks for the value of financial assets, with potential ramifications for financial stability. We quantify the systemic impact on financial firms arising from changes in the value of financial assets under three climate transition scenarios that...

During the COVID-19 pandemic, economists have struggled to obtain reliable economic predictions, with standard models becoming outdated and their forecasting performance deteriorating rapidly. This paper presents two novelties that could be adopted by forecasting institutions in unconventional...

This paper uses a stylized simulation model to assess the potential impact of transition risk on banks' balance sheets and establishes a basis for calibrating relevant macro-prudential instruments. We show that even in the short run, a fire-sale mechanism could amplify an initially contained...

This study investigates to which extent firms operating in sectors more integrated into Global Value Chains (GVC) are more likely to be involved in cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) flows. We focus on firms acquired in the EU27 during the period 2008-2020 employing a gravity model....

This report focuses on the forecast of the number of monthly cross-border deals in the European Union. We propose a new model to improve the forecasting properties of a count model of Foreign Direct Investment deals in EU, by taking into account past trends in high-frequency (daily) deal data...

Through its competition policy interventions the European Commission not only addresses infringements of EU competition law by the firms directly involved, but it also deters possible future anticompetitive behaviour by these firms and other market players. The present paper represents the...

This paper studies the role of expectations and monetary policy on the economy's response to climate actions. We show that in a stochastic environment and without the standard assumption of perfect rationality of agents, there is more uncertainty regarding the path and the economic impact of a...

Combining a rich database on natural hazards, granular flood risk maps and detailed information on firm geolocalisation, we study the dynamic impacts of floods on European manufacturing firms during the period 2007-2018. We find that water damages significantly and persistently worsen firm...

In a context where European stock prices have been trending upwards, one of the main concerns is that stocks perceived as more sustainable from an environmental, social and governance (ESG) perspective could be particularly exposed to exuberance. To shed some light on the magnitude of the...